A space rock dubbed 2024 YR4 has a 1.2% chance of smashing into our planet, scientists estimate.
NASA
scientists have just spotted a hunk of space rock that could smack into Earth
in 2032. And while it’s unlikely to wipe out humanity, it could take out a
city.
The
asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, was detected by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact
Last Alert System on Dec. 27, 2024. According to researchers, it has about a
1-in-83 chance of impacting our planet in 2032.
But
there’s some good news for Earth: 2024 YR4 is only around 180 feet (55 meters)
across, which means it is too small to end human civilization if it collided
with Earth. But it could wipe out a major city. Scientists estimate that it
would release about 8 megatons of energy upon impact — more than 500 times that
of the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan.
Although
the asteroid is currently moving away from us, Earth will have several close
shaves with the space rock in the next half century. Its next sideswipe will
occur in late 2028, followed by six more close approaches between 2032 and
2074. Of these, the one with the highest chance of impact will be on Dec. 22,
2032, according to NASA.
All
of these factors place 2024 YR4 at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale,
the system scientists use to determine an asteroid’s threat level. For objects
at this level, “attention by public and by public officials is merited if the
encounter is less than a decade away.” However, most asteroids in this category
are eventually downgraded to Level 0, which means “the likelihood of a
collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero.”
Threats
like this are the reason NASA and other space agencies are interested in
developing techniques to redirect asteroids, as demonstrated by the Double Asteroid Redirection Test mission. The chances of a catastrophic asteroid
impact are usually very low, so it is crucial to continue monitoring objects of
interest, astronomers say. Even though 2024 YR4 probably won’t trigger a mass
extinction like the dino-killing space rock that slammed into what is now
Mexico 66 million years ago, astronomers will keep a close eye on the asteroid
as it circles back toward our planet.